Australian federal election 2025 live: vote counting under way after polls close in eastern Australia states – latest news

Coalition’s primary vote down, according to early counts

Kevin Bonham

Very early days yet with only about 2% of the vote counted but enough is building up to start noticing some interesting things overall.

What is up so far is mostly primary votes and it is also possible that swings in on-the-day booths will be unrepresentative – this has been increasingly an issue in election watching as more and more voters vote by pre-poll.

In the seats with numbers so far the Coalition primary is overall down.

This is particularly striking in Bass and Braddon, where there are large swings against the Liberals in small mostly rural booths, and in the few booths where there is a two-party count they seem to be flowing through.

No first-term government has ever won a seat on a margin as large as Braddon from the opposition. There are also large swings in some small booths in Bonner, another Labor target seat, and a generally good start for Labor in Queensland LNP marginals – Leichhardt, Forde and Petrie.

Labor doesn’t seem to be in early trouble against the Coalition in any of its own seats but there are a few where non-Coalition rivals are making things interesting, including Bean (Jessie Price) and Franklin (where Peter George is ahead though the booths counted so far are likely to be favourable for him).

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\n It is unclear how this will translate into seats given the increase in the number of electorates that are three-way contests, rather than coming down to a fight between Labor and the Coalition. Pollster Shaun Ratcliff told Guardian Australia that the latest polls show the Coalition “going backwards” in a selection of key seats he has been tracking, after initial polls in February had the Coalition ahead.

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You can find more granular breakdowns of the polls, including by demography, on our tracking page.

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Somewhat further afield, Australians have already voted, Emily Wind reports:

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In the leadup to election day, Australians have cast their ballots in a number of remote locations and even from overseas – but none as far south as the 100-odd expeditioners currently working in Antarctica.

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Expeditioners working at Australia’s Antarctic and sub-Antarctic stations were able to cast their vote by telephone – a process typically reserved for voters who are blind or have low vision – with no physical ballot booth setup this year.

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Voting opened on 22 April, with expeditioners able to vote early or on election day. But, unlike others, they won’t be fined if they do not vote, according to the Australian Electoral Commission.

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The AEC says Australians travelling to work in Antarctica need to register as an Antarctic elector before leaving the country – with “Antarctic” including the Australian Antarctic Territory, the Territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands, Macquarie Island, and a ship at sea in transit to or from Antarctica.

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Arrangements were put in place for expeditioners on the RSV Nuyina in case it arrived back later than scheduled (on 2 May, the day before the election).

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It is just past 8am here in Sydney, and the polling booths are officially open!

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Voters can lodge their ballots between 8am to 6pm today.

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For a refresher on when, where and how to vote, here is our 2025 voting guide with everything you need to know.

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Key events

Elias Visontay

‘We believe in miracles. But it’s tough’ says Dutton

Peter Dutton has cautioned against jumping to conclusions as early results trickle in, noting that pre-poll votes traditionally favour the Coalition.

In an interview with Channel 9 on the sidelines of the Coalition’s election night event in Brisbane, the opposition leader said “everyone’s still running on fumes” after a long campaign.

Dutton said:

I don’t think we’ll see any meaningful numbers for another hour or so. You need those pre-poll numbers, which have been in huge numbers and traditionally that favours us quite significantly. So I think the early numbers you see will be distorting, if they’re just from today. So let’s see how it goes over the next hour.

He added:

You really want to see the pre-polling numbers, given that, you know, 30, 40, 50%, depending on the seats, of people voted before today, and traditionally, if they’re older Australians, they’re more our way and they voted earlier and we want to see all of those numbers.

He ends with some optimism:

We believe in miracles. But it’s tough.

Dan Jervis-Bardy

It’s still extremely early days in the count but there are some worrying signs for the Coalition in crucial seats.

The seat of Gilmore on the NSW south coast was considered a must-win for the opposition with former state minister Andrew Constance hoping to reverse a narrow defeat in the 2022 poll.

But with 10% of the vote counted, Labor MP Fiona Phillips is ahead 57-43 two-party preferred.

That is a swing of almost 7%.

There is also an early swing to Labor in the Coalition-held seat of Leichhardt, where former basketballer Matt Smith is running against Jeremy Neal.

If these results hold up – and we stress, it’s still very early – it might be a very long night for Peter Dutton.

Benita Kolovos

We’ve arrived at the Labor election night event for Macnamara MP Josh Burns, and so far it is pretty subdued, with party faithful chatting quietly over beers, Cheezels and soft rock.

As one of the tightest three-cornered contests in the country, it could be a while before we get a result here.

Macnamara, which stretches across Melbourne’s inner bayside suburbs, is a three horse contest between Labor’s Burns, Liberal candidate Benson Saulo, and the Greens’ Sonya Semmens. At the last election, all three parties secured pretty comparable first-preference votes but Labor ultimately won the seat off the back of the Greens preferences.

This time, the race is even more unpredictable due to the war in the Middle East. Around 10% of Macnamara’s population is Jewish, making it the second-largest Jewish electorate in the country, behind Wentworth in Sydney and followed by its neighbouring seat, Goldstein, both held by independents.

Many in Macnamara have criticised Labor’s response to antisemitism and a perceived failure to stand firmly with Israel amid the war in Gaza, sparked by the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023.

Burns, one of a few Jewish MPs in federal parliament, has faced a relentless campaign from Advance Australia and J-United during the campaign, which had urged him to preference the Greens last.

Instead, Burns ran on an open ticket, meaning his how-to-vote cards didn’t direct voters on where to send their preferences.

The conundrum for Jewish voters disillusioned with Burns is that if enough people switch their primary vote to Saulo so that Labor comes third, it could deliver the seat to the Greens.

A subdued affair at the Josh Burns Labour party election party at the Port Melbourne Bowling Club. Photograph: Christopher Hopkins/The Guardian

Josh Butler

Dutton’s early troubles in own seat unleashed huge cheer at Labor HQ

Labor people are getting more excited here at the official party in the inner west of Sydney.

As Antony Green flashes up the early results in Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson, with Labor’s Ali France enjoying a healthy lead early on, a massive cheer rings out.

It’s early in the night, a long way to go, only about 5% of the vote counted … but it’s obvious which seat this party will be most focused on tonight.

Over on the ABC, Jim Chalmers says his “phone is blowing up” over the votes so far in Dickson, but adds:

We think the early voting which will come in in huge chunks later in the night will be better for him than on the day but there is a lot of interest, as you can imagine on that big early number.

Hanson says Coalition preferrencing One Nation to win seats

Murray Watt is asking One Nation leader Pauline Hanson why the Coalition is preferencing her party number two in so many seats, an about-face from John Howard’s position putting One Nation last.

Hanson tells Watt her party’s standing has changed:

Your stance we are a racist party is a load of rubbish.

Hanson said the Coalition knows that preferencing her party contributes to getting them seats in parliament.

Hanson says she has “no time for Labor”.

Climate 200 funding to blame for Liberals’ struggle in Sydney’s Bradfield – James McGrath

James McGrath says Climate 200 money is the reason the Liberals are struggling to gain traction against the community independents, especially as Nicolette Boele leads the initial count in the seat of Bradfield in Sydney.

McGrath says:

In Bradfield we have had someone … funded by Climate 200 as the shadow MP for the last three years.

McGrath is asked if he’s “blaming” the organisation.

He says “no”.

I’m pointing out what is happening electorally on a number of seats across the country … They have six fully funded offices that are staffed.

Nick Evershed

Incumbents projected to hold on to safe seats: Clark, Gippsland, Mallee and Dawson

In addition to Maranoa, we’re projecting a few more very safe seats for the incumbents in those electorates. Clark – independent Andrew Wilkie to retain, Gippsland and Mallee both Nationals to retain, and Dawson LNP to retain.

Natasha May

Murray Watt says early Brisbane results ‘very encouraging’

Labor Senator Murray Watt has told Sky News the early figures in the seat of Brisbane are “encouraging” as Labor candidate Madonna Jarrett looks to take it back from Greens MP Stephen Bates.

Josh Butler

Electric mood at Labor’s main election night party in Albanese’s electorate

The mood is already buzzing at Labor’s main election night party in Anthony Albanese’s electorate of Grayndler. We’re in a large function room of a big club, and it’s already starting to fill up.

We haven’t spotted any MPs or ministers yet, but party faithful in Labor red T-shirts are cracking into a few drinks – there’s a lot of “Albo Ale”, the Albanese-branded beer from local brewery Willie the Boatman, going around.

A big cheer just went up as the early results from Gilmore flashed up on the ABC from a big screen TV in one corner, showing Fiona Phillips with an early lead.

Another cheer goes up as Antony Green says the independent is leading in the Liberal seat of Bradfield.